Two pillars of the PC industry are vulnerable, too. The netbook phenomenon squeezes Intel (INTC) and Microsoft hardest of all. Analysts say Intel has to sell three times as many Atom processors, which power netbooks, to make as much as it does selling a single conventional notebook processor. Microsoft is said to get about $13 per copy for the Windows version that goes in netbooks, vs. more than $50 for those that go into standard PCs.
The PC makers that stand to do best include Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Acer, and Apple (AAPL). HP has a well-balanced portfolio of products. Acer operates with a super-lean Taiwanese cost structure that allows it to price its products aggressively. Apple seems content to stick with making ever-more-powerful PCs for premium prices.
But will marketing high-powered computers featuring slick industrial design still work in the bust? That's debatable. Market researcher NPD Group says sales of Macintosh computers declined 1% in November, which could be a harbinger of trouble.
In spite of the uncertain times, PC executives will watch more successful companies for cues. Apple's ability to get consumers to buy its iPods, iPhones, and Macs, for example, lures customers into an Apple-only world.
Given all of the turmoil, the only major computer company feeling sanguine about the PC market right now may be IBM (IBM). Big Blue sidestepped the tumult by selling its PC business to Lenovo four years ago.
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